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The Best Sportsbook Reviews: Online Betting Sites

Why is a 70% Win Rate Unrealistic When Betting on the NFL?

1 min read

The sport gambling industry is one that lacks regulation, meaning anybody can start a business, site or used car salesman character to start selling selections. Since there’s absolutely no regulation, handicappers can correct false records and promises of unimaginable wealth so as to receive business.

While there are many legitimate and transparent handicappers in the industry, there are also an overwhelming amount using fake names, flashy cars, girls of suspicious clothing and morals (we’re guessing) and unachievable records to convince new or uneducated bettors to purchase their selections.

Even though this might seem a little over the top, we frequently get calls asking why people don’t hit 70 percent of our matches such as many of the other providers out there. Our response is that a 70% win rate is not attainable over the long run.

To describe this in more detail, we examined the likelihood that a sports bettor can win 70 percent of wagers to illustrate just how unrealistic this is.

For the purposes of this guide, we picked the z-ratio (also referred to as z-score) to show how many standard deviations away from”anticipated” an occasion is.

Example 1: No Edge

This example assumes a handicapper who historically hits 50 percent of his games, meaning the handicapper does not have any advantage when choosing games. The data assumes 1,000 plays against the spread (using a vig of -110) over a calendar year, across all major US sports.

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